Saturday 15 May 2010

"It's not in our hands"; Why Hezbollah Will Stay Armed and Dangerous


Via-Friday-Lunch-Club
Foreign Affairs/ here

Last month, press reports and Israeli government statements announced that Syria may have transferred Scud missiles to Hezbollah. The revelation was a reminder that the Lebanon-based terrorist group serves multiple constituencies -- not just in Lebanon but in Iran and Syria as well. These constituencies -- which range from Iran's supreme leader to Hezbollah's Lebanese Christian political allies -- sometimes have competing interests, but they amount to one certainty: Hezbollah will not peacefully disarm soon, and to assert that it may betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of Hezbollah's nature, Lebanese politics, and regional dynamics.
Because Hezbollah plays a destabilizing role in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East, the prospect of its disarmament is alluring. Therefore, when the group participates in Lebanese politics, updates its platform, or holds discussions with various other parties, some analysts are quick to interpret such behavior as evidence that Hezbollah is becoming a nonviolent political actor. To consider that possibility, one must examine both the internal and external influences on Hezbollah's actions. Internally, the group and its patrons could choose to disarm voluntarily. Externally, a strengthened Lebanese state could minimize Hezbollah's operating space and thereby displace Hezbollah's arms and public support. Unfortunately, neither scenario is likely.
Lebanon's political leaders are now formally debating the country's national defense strategy. Although such a dialogue requires acknowledging that the Lebanese state does not hold a monopoly on violence -- indeed, if Hezbollah were a national military, it would be among the most capable in the entire region -- Lebanon's elites typically avoid the issue of Hezbollah's arms. This is unfortunate, since Lebanon's biggest hurdle in designing a national defense strategy is determining Hezbollah's appropriate role in the state.
Since Hezbollah began participating in Lebanese politics in 1992 (upon receiving formal consent from Iran's supreme leader), it has demonstrated a willingness to engage with various parties inside and outside of Lebanon, including myriad Lebanese confessional leaders, European politicians, and former U.S. government officials. But such talks do not represent the first step on the path to disarmament. Rather, they show Hezbollah's flexibility in a dynamic geopolitical environment. Given the challenge of maneuvering politically in Lebanon -- where the country's 18 confessional groups all maintain affiliations with outside powers -- Hezbollah gains domestic and international influence by entering into dialogues with these groups. Doing so allows Hezbollah to remain involved in the many aspects of Lebanese political life.
Retaining arms is a key factor in Hezbollah's longstanding ability to subvert the Lebanese state. In May 2008, when rival Lebanese forces tried to undermine Hezbollah's communications infrastructure and minimize its covert security presence at the Beirut airport, the group responded violently, triggering the worst intra-Lebanese violence since the country's 15-year civil war (obviously, miss karlin knows nothing of the civil war in lebanon). ....
And in 2006, of course, Hezbollah's war with Israel affirmed the group's potency as a threat to regional stability -- a threat that the nominal government in Beirut cannot restrain.....
The group's patrons, Iran and Syria, play critical roles in perpetuating its armed status. "It's not in our hands," a senior Lebanese political leader ruefully told me in Beirut recently. Rather, "regional circumstances monopolize." ....
In exchange for such sophisticated assistance, Tehran and Damascus expect Hezbollah to be a fearsome and generally compliant proxy. Beginning in 1983 with its attack on the United States' presence in Beirut, Hezbollah has repeatedly disrupted the region, ....
Israel massacres and destruction — bloodlust desire to kill, injure and maim one and half million people.  Palestine Nansi Said died after inhailing white phosphorous.  Palestine female infant Nancy Sa'id was proclaimed dead on Sunday after the deterioration of her health as a result of inhaling toxic gas emitted from white phosphorous fired by US Israel during its recent attack on the Gaza Strip.  Palestinian medical sources added that the six-month-old baby died of severe complications in her lungs and respiratory problems.  Meanwhile, a number of nuclear energy experts visited the Egyptian town of Rafah and the border areas with Gaza to examine and measure the rate of radiation after Israel reportedly used depleted uranium during its shelling of the areas near Egypt.  The experts fear that if the soil was contaminated by radiation resulting from phosphorous bombs and depleted uranium, the people there would be vulnerable to cancer and other deadly diseases.  The impact of radiation continues for years in the soil and plants as well as it threatens the fertility of humans and leads to the birth of deformed and ill children.  The US Israel tank, troop and air strike assault on a defenseless people in the Gaza Strip has unleashed worldwide condemnation as moves for a ceasefire was vetoed by the US at the United Nations.  More than Fifteen million US dollars is given by US taxpayers each day for the military use of Israel, which presently involves the imprisonment of the remaining segregated ' Bantustan — Apartheid ' parcels of land occupied by millions of Palestinian people.  Palestinians were forced from their homes 60 years ago from what is now called Israel into refugee camps in Gaza and the West Bank, Jordan and Lebanon.  While attempts have been made by the Palestinians to create a better life for themselves, these refugee camps have been forced upon them to this day by American Taxpayer funding, and Anglo American, Europe backing and banking for Israel that has propped up the forced 'state' of Israel for more than fifty years.  Illuminati, New World Order elite have been at the forefront in protecting European and American settler people who stole the land and continue to steal the remaining few segments of land from the Palestinians, in essence taking away from the Palestinians piece by piece this land over these many years.  Funding by the US Taxpayer for the enslavement of the Palestinian people continues to increase, estimated now considerably more than the previous 4 billion US dollars per year.  Photo: www.ccun.org/
"disrupting the region ..."
Meanwhile, the threat of Hezbollah violence is a deterrent to those states considering military action against the Iranian nuclear program. Indeed, as international pressure has mounted against Iran's nuclear program, Hezbollah has grown stronger. This may be serendipity, or an intentional Iranian strategy to bolster an effective deterrent. Thus, even if Hezbollah were interested in disarming and becoming just another Lebanese political actor (which no Hezbollah leader appears to be considering), it is not clear that the Iranian regime would permit such a move.
Moreover, disarming Hezbollah would be much more complicated than simply taking away its weapons and integrating its personnel into Lebanese institutions; it would require that those institutions be capable of replacing Hezbollah's social-services infrastructure and serving the needs of the Lebanese population....
Indeed, until the Middle East's larger political problems are resolved -- including the unstable state of affairs in and around Iran -- the viability of the Lebanese state will remain in question. Hezbollah, then, will remain armed and dangerous.
Posted by G, Z, or B at 10:39 AM
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian

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