Monday 9 April 2012

"Assad’s resoluteness stems from the support of his immediate environment & from RELEVANT global powers!"


Via FLC  

".... In an exclusive interview with Israel Hayom, the first interview he has agreed to since being named GOC Northern Command, Golan revealed that advanced weaponry has made its way into Hezbollah's hands in Lebanon. He also predicts that Bashar Assad will not be deposed in the near future. “A lot of blood will be spilled before that happens,” he said. “It will take many months. Last October, we said it would take 18 months, and I think that we underestimated the situation. In my view, it will take even longer.”

In other words, barring any unforeseen circumstances, Assad survives 2012 in office?
“I believe so, and I think this will continue into 2013. On the one hand, it’s hard to put down the rioting there, which is wider and bloodier than what Hafez Assad [Bashar's father] had to deal with in the 70s and 80s. But even back then, the uprising kept Hafez preoccupied for six years...."

Who is advising him? To whom will he listen?
“The traditional leadership surrounding him remains intact. You have to remember that this is an aging group of leaders whose best years are well behind it. While it is very experienced, it is doubtful whether it has the energy necessary to withstand a challenge of this scale. Here, too, I make the comparison with what Assad senior had available to him....

How deeply involved are Iran and Hezbollah with what is taking place in Syria?
“They’re up to their necks with what is happening there. When we use the term ‘axis of evil,’ people look at it as some kind of literary expression, as some kind of image conjured up by the poetic mind of whoever is saying it. It’s not that. When we talk about the axis of evil, it is in the most down-to-earth sense possible.”

Are Hezbollah fighters active in Syria?
“Certainly. There are military trainers, instructors, and, to the best of my knowledge, combatants as well. They are involved up to their necks.”

Is Iran providing weapons to Syria?
“All the time. This is a continuing, constant development. The Iranians are saying to Assad, ‘Listen, you are dear to us,’ and they are supporting him enthusiastically. Part of the Syrian regime’s resoluteness stems from Assad’s sense that he still has support from his immediate environment, from overseas, and from relevant global powers. In other words, when Assad takes a look outside, he sees Hezbollah, which is helping. He has the Iranians who are supporting him, and in the background are Russia and China, two countries that are not exactly thrilled with the trend that has taken hold in the West of condemning, isolating, and advocating rapid regime change. So from an international standpoint, Assad can take solace. If those guys in the Arab League want to condemn him, let them condemn.”
“The weapons smuggling continues”
Under the present circumstances, what is particularly disturbing to the IDF is the prospect of Syria becoming a failed state. This would mean that the ..... challenge posed by the standing Syrian army could disappear, but it could be replaced by the challenge of terrorism.”
Ostensibly, Golan is not concerned solely with terrorism, but with the stockpiles of strategic weapons that are in Syria. “Long-range missiles and advanced rockets, unmanned aerial drones, surface-to-air missiles, sophisticated underwater projectiles, and, above all else, the world’s largest stockpile of chemical weapons,” he said. “From our standpoint, all of these items are a source of concern.”
Are they under control as of today?

“As of now, we are not seeing any leakage of any of these arms into the hands of irresponsible or unofficial actors, but one does not need a wild imagination in this regard. The Syrians routinely provide arms to Hezbollah, not just any arms, but almost everything in their arsenal. And Hezbollah has all the reasons in the world to procure advanced weapons at bargain prices. From its standpoint, it now has the opportunity to do so.”
Will things spin out of control the more the regime in Damascus loses its grip on power?
“This is what we think, and this is just an assessment. There are certain assessments where one can attribute to pure speculation. In this case, we don’t have an instance of pure speculation. Here we have seen a years-long supply of Syrian arms to Hezbollah, and these deliveries persist to this day. So there isn’t even a question mark in my view.”
Are any of the strategic items changing hands?
“Over the long haul, strategic weapons have also made their way from Syria to Hezbollah. Let’s be modest and say that we don’t know all the details, so I believe that more weapons have passed than we think.”

Is any of this a cause for serious concern?
“The only element that I can finger as one that would change the situation is chemical weapons.”
And these haven’t been transferred?
“To the best of our knowledge, no. The other weapons, which vary in terms of their level of sophistication, have been transferred.”
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian  
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